bellwether / bellweather
The leader that shows the way, and the false spelling.
Write bellwether. A wether is a castrated male sheep. The bellwether wore the bell that the flock followed. Bellweather is a mistake. The word has nothing to do with weather.
Examples
UseHardware stores are a bellwether for the trade.
AvoidHardware stores are a bellweather for the trade.